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Berlin stands ready to throw its weight behind a German candidate to succeed Christine Lagarde as president of the European Central Bank, even as it sees little chance of securing a job it has never held, according to four people briefed on the matter.
Bundesbank governor Joachim Nagel and ECB board member Isabel Schnabel have both signalled they would be prepared to succeed France’s Lagarde, whose term expires in 2027. Since Europe’s top monetary authority was created in 1998, there has never been an ECB president with a German passport.
Any potential successor for Lagarde, who holds the highest-paid job in any EU institution, needs the strong support of their national government as part of a high-stakes political negotiation between European capitals, often involving the bloc’s other top roles.
Nagel, a Social Democrat who has been in charge of Germany’s central bank since 2022, has been lobbying Berlin for political backing for the ECB presidency for months, some of the people said.
Asked if he was interested in the role by Germany’s Der Spiegel last month, Nagel said that “every central banker on the ECB’s governing council should have the competence” to perform the top job.
Nagel has also stressed that under his leadership, the Bundesbank has abandoned its historically hawkish monetary position that at times isolated the Germans from most other Eurozone members. That would make it possible for the bloc’s largest economy to secure the job for the first time, according to two of the people.
Schnabel, one of the most vocal voices on the ECB’s governing council, told Bloomberg this week that she “would stand ready” to succeed Lagarde “if I was asked”. But she would have to overcome the rule that the eight-year terms of ECB executive board members cannot be renewed.
Lagarde’s non-renewable eight-year term at the helm of the Frankfurt-based institution expires in October 2027. The presidency, which comes with a base salary of €466,000 a year plus benefits, is one of four jobs on the six-strong executive board that will be up for grabs before the end of that year.
The German government reckons a push for the Lagarde succession would be unlikely to succeed because the presidency of the European Commission will still be held by Ursula von der Leyen, a German national, until 2029, according to the four people briefed on Berlin’s thinking.
Lagarde and von der Leyen secured their jobs during a so-called grand bargain in 2019 between French President Emmanuel Macron and Germany’s then-chancellor Angela Merkel.
One person said that it would be near “impossible” to have the two most important EU jobs in German hands over a two-year period. Another said there had been some surprise in Berlin at Nagel pushing for the job given that impediment.
A third said that while winning consensus for a German ECB president would be difficult, Berlin may judge it is worth investing political capital in a negotiation over one of the most powerful roles in the EU.
The Lagarde succession was of crucial importance for the German government because of the challenges that the single currency was facing, this person said, although they cautioned that it was too early for the topic to be under consideration by Chancellor Friedrich Merz.
The question may also be about representation of Germany after von der Leyen’s term expired, the person added, noting that Paris would probably not hold back from presenting a candidate, even though having two French nationals in a row at the helm of the ECB is unlikely.
One scenario that people familiar with Nagel’s thinking have suggested is von der Leyen possibly succeeding Frank-Walter Steinmeier as German federal president in early 2027.
In response to German press reports earlier this year about von der Leyen potentially becoming the country’s head of state, her spokesperson said she was “fully focused on her duties as president of the European Commission” and “not available for other functions or positions”.
A spokesperson for the German government declined to “comment on personnel speculation”. Pointing to the fact that Lagarde’s term will run for almost two more years, the government said that it “will form an opinion” on the next ECB president “in due course”, adding that it will “actively participate in the process”.
Spokespeople for Nagel and Schnabel both declined to comment.
Other potential contenders for the next ECB president include former Dutch central bank governor Klaas Knot and his Spanish ex-colleague Pablo Hernández de Cos, the general manager of the Bank for International Settlements.
Additional reporting by Henry Foy in Brussels