COSTS FOR US STRATEGY IN ASIA
The first is the risk of the conflict intensifying and broadening. The US and Israel aim to destroy Iran’s missile launchers before Iran’s missiles overwhelm their finite defence munitions. Iran, meanwhile, aims to expand the war to the Gulf states, increasing the costs to force Washington to back off.
Washington wants to make this war a sprint, while Tehran wants to make it a costly melee.
No one can say when the US decides that its objectives have been met. Nonetheless, it would be difficult for Washington to pay attention to Asia if its strategic bandwidth is held hostage by the Middle East.
The second is the rapid depletion of American munition stocks. On Wednesday (Mar 4), US Central Command said that they had hit nearly 2,000 targets inside Iran. Observers have cautioned that the US is depleting its stockpile of Tomahawk cruise missiles that could be necessary for a conflict with China.
US missile defence munitions present a serious problem as well. During last year’s 12-day war between Israel and Iran, US stockpiles of missile interceptors were “severely affected”, with more than 150 Terminal High Altitude Defense (THAAD) Interceptor missiles expended. Many more will likely be used in the current fight against Iran, which has been estimated to have fired over 500 ballistic missiles and over 2,000 drones by Wednesday.