SINGAPORE: Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said on Thursday (Jan 29) that he expects the United States to respect Canadian sovereignty, after reports that US State Department officials had met an Alberta separatist group several times over the past year.
The purported meetings have renewed attention on a long-simmering independence movement in the oil-rich Canadian province, and raised questions about whether US President Donald Trump could be seeking to exploit it.
While the idea of an independent Alberta has existed for decades, the movement only gained traction in recent years, with calls for a possible referendum on the matter.
CNA explains what’s driving Alberta’s separatist push, how realistic it is, and what role the Trump administration may be playing.
What’s happening in Canada?
According to a Financial Times report, US State Department officials have met leaders of the Alberta Prosperity Project (APP) three times since April 2025.
The group, which opposes federal policies it says are hostile to Alberta’s energy sector, is pushing for a referendum on whether the western province should break away from Canada.
The separatists are also seeking meetings with US state and Treasury officials in February to discuss a potential US$500 billion credit facility to help bankroll Alberta if an independence vote were to succeed, the report said, citing people familiar with the talks.
“The US is extremely enthusiastic about a free and independent Alberta,” APP’s legal counsel told the Financial Times.
No referendum has been called so far. Organisers must first collect about 177,000 signatures by May 2 – of which 10 per cent must be eligible voters from the last provincial election – to trigger a vote.
Carney said on Thursday that he expects the US administration to respect his country’s sovereignty.
“I’m always clear in my conversations with President Trump to that effect,” Carney said, adding that the US president had never raised the question of Alberta separatism with him.
Why do the separatists want independence?
Alberta is Canada’s largest producer of oil and gas and a major driver of economic growth. In 2024, it ranked second only to Ontario in its contribution to national GDP growth, according to Time Magazine.
But tensions between Alberta and Ottawa have grown in recent years, particularly over climate and energy policies.
Former prime minister Justin Trudeau’s push for emissions reductions and carbon pricing clashed with Alberta’s fossil-fuel-driven economy, fuelling long-standing grievances that the province is unfairly constrained by federal decision-making.
An Ipsos survey conducted in January found that about 29 per cent of Albertan residents would “vote for their province to begin the process of separating from Canada and seeking a new agreement to define its future relationship with the country”.
About 55 per cent of those supporting independence said this was because the province has “historically been mistreated” within Canada.
“Alberta has for a long time had very low taxes and has subsidised the rest of Canada with oil wealth,” said Stephen Saideman, Paterson Chair in International Affairs from Carleton University’s Norman Paterson School of International Affairs.
“But with climate change presenting a greater … threat to the world and particularly to Canada, there have been some discussions on how to regulate oil, how to minimise carbon emissions,” he told CNA on Friday.
Besides these frustrations, another factor may be Canada’s recent political history, said Dr Saideman.
Alberta tends to vote more conservatively than the rest of Canada, and the country has been governed by Liberal prime ministers such as Trudeau and Carney for around 10 years.