Make a wish and blow out the candles, Josh Allen.
The 2024 NFL MVP turned 30 on Thursday, leaving us wondering about the best age-30 seasons by quarterbacks in league history.
Below, we take a look back at 10 of the most notable, and they suggest that there might not be a better time for Allen to bring a Super Bowl to Buffalo.
“Many people believe a pro quarterback reaches his peak in his thirties,” wrote Louisiana Sports Hall of Fame sportswriter Jerry Byrd for the now-defunct Shreveport Journal on Bradshaw’s 30th birthday, Sept. 2, 1978 — one day before the start of the 1978 season.
Those words proved prophetic, with the four-time Super Bowl-winning quarterback earning his lone MVP award that year while throwing for 2,915 yards and an NFL-leading 28 touchdowns. He added another eight passing touchdowns in the playoffs, including four in Super Bowl XIII en route to his first of two Super Bowl MVPs.
1990 was a fantastic year for Kelly, who briefly became the NFL’s highest-paid player when signing a seven-year, $20M contract extension in March, one month after turning 30. (San Francisco 49ers quarterback Joe Montana would sign a deal worth $3.25M annually in August to take the title.)
Kelly rewarded Buffalo’s faith by guiding the Bills to the first of four consecutive AFC championships (1990-93). Those teams painfully never won a Super Bowl, and that 1993 Bills squad was the last to play for a Lombardi Trophy. Considering all of the playoff heartbreak Allen has endured over the years, following Kelly in just getting Buffalo to the Super Bowl would feel like a massive breakthrough.
Two years after leading the Rams to a stunning Super Bowl win, Warner had his best season while conducting “The Greatest Show on Turf” after turning 30, leading the league in completion percentage (68.7 percent), passing yards (4,830) and passing touchdowns (36). St. Louis also reached the Super Bowl that season, only to lose to the New England Patriots and young second-year quarterback Tom Brady on a walk-off field goal.
After an up-and-down first four seasons as the Seahawks’ starting quarterback, Hasselbeck had a career year while turning 30 in Week 3. He certainly benefited massively from handing the ball off to dynamic running back Shaun Alexander, but Hasselbeck held his own as Seattle won its first NFC championship before falling to the Steelers in Super Bowl XL.
His 65.5 percent completion percentage was his best in 10 seasons with at least 10 starts, and he also posted his highest touchdown rate (5.3 percent) and lowest interception rate (2 percent) in those seasons.
Manning’s first six playoff appearances ended in disappointment, leaving the star quarterback with a label as a playoff choker heading into his age-30 season. He responded by silencing critics and winning his first Super Bowl, taking down the heated rival New England Patriots in the AFC Championship Game along the way.
New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (2007)
Brady did everything but win a Super Bowl in 2007. The Patriots became the only team in NFL history to go 16-0. Brady had one of the best seasons ever by a quarterback while finishing a win shy of a perfect 19-0 record, completing 68.9 percent of his pass attempts for 4,806 passing yards, 50 passing touchdowns and eight interceptions.
Two years later, Brees marched the Saints to the first (and only) Super Bowl in franchise history, defeating Manning’s Colts for a historic Lombardi Trophy. Brees, who will be inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame in August, led the league in completion percentage (70.6 percent), passing touchdowns (34) and passer rating (109.6) that year. He was just as brilliant in the postseason, throwing for eight touchdowns without an interception while New Orleans averaged 35.7 points per game.
Manning won his second Super Bowl in his age-30 season, which was also one of his best statistical seasons. The younger Manning brother threw for a career-high 4,933 yards, 29 touchdowns and 16 interceptions in 2011 and then was sensational in the playoffs, averaging 304.8 passing yards per game and throwing nine touchdowns with one interception.
Prescott and Goff didn’t experience the playoff success of the other age-30 quarterbacks listed, but both experienced career peaks in those years.
The Cowboys made their last playoff appearance after Prescott turned 30 in July 2023, and the 11-year veteran threw a career-high 36 touchdowns that season while finishing second in MVP voting. The Lions won a franchise-record 15 games during Goff’s age-30 season. He also set personal highs in completion percentage (72.4 percent), passing touchdowns (37) and passer rating (111.8).
Having been a top-five quarterback for the past six seasons, this might represent Allen’s floor as he enters his age-30 season. Like the Cowboys and Lions, it would be a shame if the Bills waste it.