The 2025 American League Most Valuable Player race turned into a two-player affair fairly early this season. Still, strong finishes by a few other players could make voters think harder when it’s decision-making time.
Yankees star outfielder Aaron Judge, the reigning AL MVP, is having another monster season. Despite a brief stint on the IL a few weeks ago, Judge has an impressive slash line at .333/.444/.687. He has 38 home runs, 88 RBI and 94 runs. His Fangraphs Offense rating is an astronomical 53.7, but he has a negative on the Defense rating. Still, his 7.4 fWAR leads the league comfortably.
His biggest competition is Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh. His slash is terrific, though it pales in comparison to Judge’s. His is .243/.350/.582. He’s hit a league-leading 45 home runs, with 98 RBI and 78 runs. The fact that he’s a catcher is even more incredible. He’s just four home runs away from breaking Salvador Perez’s record for homers by a catcher. While he has served as the DH some, Raleigh has 90 games logged behind the plate.
There are three players who would need to get red hot the last several weeks of the season to have any chance of pulling first- or second-place votes away from Judge and Raleigh.
Last year’s runner-up, Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr., is having another fine season, though he hasn’t been nearly as good or consistent offensively. While he has 17 home runs and 30 stolen baes, it looks like he will fall short of a third consecutive 30/30 season, unless he gets blazing hot soon.
Defensively, he’s been otherworldly, and his Fangraphs ratings for Offense and Defense are about even. His superior defense has carried him to a fWAR of 5.7, the third-highest mark in the AL.
The Guardians third baseman, Jose Ramirez, is a perennial MVP candidate, though he’s never won one. He’s having another terrific season with 25 home runs and 35 stolen bases already. His slash line is one of the best in the league at .298/..371/.528. Ramirez is striking out only 10.2% of the time, which is hardly believable. If he could finish strong, another top-five finish in the AL MVP voting is all but assured.
Other players are having strong breakout seasons, like Astros shortstop Jeremy Pena and Royals third baseman Maikel Garcia, but the dark horse in this MVP race might be Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Offensively, he’s having a tremendous season, slashing .300/.397/.496. He has 20 home runs, 67 RBI and 81 runs. Most impressively, he’s striking out only 13.6% of the time, while walking 13.0%. Defensively, he’s not nearly as good as the rest of the field with a big -9.9 Defense rating. It is pulling his fWAR down, but at 3.9, there is still time to improve that number.
Still, Guerrero is the best hitter on the AL team with the best record currently. He is their offensive leader, and if he can help push the Blue Jays to an AL East title, he should gain plenty of MVP attention with a strong finish.
Right now, Judge and Raleigh are the frontrunners, and it isn’t particularly close. Still, Witt, Ramirez, and Guerrero all could make decent cases by finishing hot, especially if either of the top two falter down the stretch.