The Tampa Bay Buccaneers kept their season and their playoff hopes alive on Saturday evening with a 16-14 win over the Carolina Panthers. It helped them avoid — for now — what would have been a humiliating second-half collapse, and now gives them a chance to win the NFC South and host a playoff game.
But they still have to wait and get some help on Sunday from an unlikely source — A 6-10 New Orleans Saints team.
NFC South chaos scenario is now in play
With Tampa Bay’s win on Saturday, both the Buccaneers and Panthers end their regular seasons with matching 8-9 records.
In a head-to-head tiebreaker scenario, the Buccaneers would win that and secure the division.
But the outcome of Sunday’s game between the Saints and Atlanta Falcons could create a three-way tie that would swing the division back in Carolina’s favor.
If the Falcons beat New Orleans, it would give them an 8-9 record to match the Panthers and Buccaneers and create a three-way tie at the top of the division. In that instance, the Panthers win the division and host a playoff game next week.
That means two teams with nothing to play for, and two teams that have already been eliminated from playoff contention, are going to decide a division winner and alter the path for several teams going into the postseason.
That is also only one part of the story here. The subplot to all of this is an 8-9 team is going to win the division and host a playoff game. That not only forces a team with a better record to travel to them, but also a team that will almost certainly have the second-best record in the NFC.
This will only be the fifth time in NFL history (in a non-strike year) that a team with a losing record will make the playoffs. No matter which team it is, it will be the second time one of these franchises has done it (Carolina in 2014 and Tampa Bay in 2022)
There is already an ongoing debate in the NFL as to whether or not division winners should automatically host playoff games, and this outcome is only going to throw more fuel onto that fire. It is almost certainly going to be a 12-win team (or maybe even a 13-win team) having to travel on the road to a team that is four or five games worse.
As long as the divisional format exists, there has to be some sort of reward for winning it. If not, just get rid of the divisions, blend teams into two big conferences, and simply take the top seven teams. Until that change gets made, this is the format and everybody is just going to have to deal with it.
For now, Carolina missed its chance to win the division on Saturday. Tampa Bay still has a hope. Now all eyes shift to two teams with no chance of making the playoffs. All of this is very on brand for the NFC South.