MANILA: The impeachment trial of Philippine Vice President Sara Duterte, which begins on Monday (Jul 6), is set to shape the country’s 2028 presidential race and deepen a schism between two storied political dynasties that has plunged the Senate into turmoil.
The outcome will not only determine whether Duterte can run for the presidency, but will also test confidence in the Southeast Asian nation’s institutions and politicians.
Analysts say the key will be whether the public sees the verdict as credible or instead driven by partisan interests.
“If it is seen as politically motivated or lacking credibility, questions may linger regardless of the outcome,” said Ederson Tapia, a public administration professor at the University of Makati.
It remains unclear how long the trial will last, with factors such as procedural disputes, the number of witnesses and the presentation of evidence likely to determine its pace. The impeachment trial of a former chief justice in 2012 lasted four months.
A conviction requires the votes of at least 16 of the Senate’s 24 members.
Opinion polls show Duterte is a leading contender for the 2028 election, but a guilty verdict could jeopardise her presidential ambitions.
“If the public perceives the process to have been fair, an acquittal could strengthen her position,” Tapia said.
The first impeachment trial of a vice president centres on allegations that Duterte misused public funds, amassed unexplained wealth and threatened the lives of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr, the first lady and a former House speaker.
Duterte, the daughter of former President Rodrigo Duterte, denies wrongdoing and insists the impeachment is politically motivated.
“That is to be expected,” Congressman Robert “Ace” Barbers, spokesperson for the prosecution, said of the vice president’s assertions. “We will let the evidence speak for itself.”
Jean Encinas-Franco, a political science professor at the University of the Philippines, said both sides must be able to properly present their case to ensure public confidence.
She cited the impeachment proceedings against then-President Joseph Estrada, in which a Senate vote to withhold key evidence triggered public outrage, halted the trial and fuelled mass protests that led to Estrada’s removal from office in January 2001.
“They really have to make sure that both the prosecution and the defence are given enough time and voice … so the public does not perceive the trial as favouring one side,” she said.
Duterte’s lawyer, Michael Poa, said the defence was prepared to prove the allegations were “baseless”.
He could not yet say whether Duterte would attend Monday’s proceedings, as the summons said she could be represented by counsel.