WHERE MIDDLE POWERS MUST STAND TOGETHER
If the great powers are unwilling to uphold rules, others must insist on them. Standing against nuclear proliferation is precisely the kind of issue on which middle powers must step forward.
As Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney warned recently at Davos, “middle powers must act together, because if we’re not at the table, we’re on the menu”.
Asia’s middle powers and regional leaders – working alongside partners beyond the region – have a clear stake in preventing a nuclear free-for-all.
Acting together, they should press the three great powers to embrace greater nuclear transparency and renew arms control efforts, making clear that continued cooperation on trade and security depends on great power restraint and predictability. Even with limited leverage, Asian leaders can still collectively reaffirm non-proliferation norms and work to strengthen regional stability among themselves.
Sceptics may ask what the point of international treaties or rules is if great powers no longer believe they need to abide by them. The answer is simple: Rules do not eliminate danger, but they reduce it. They establish standards, create expectations, and allow violations to be named and challenged.
And when a different strategic calculus takes hold at some point in Washington, Beijing or Moscow – one that favours common-sense limits on weapons of mass destruction and enhancing strategic stability – existing rules can serve as a crucial starting point for renewed cooperation.
For now, if great powers will not lead, others must push them – collectively, persistently, and publicly – back toward responsibility.
The alternative for Asia is a region where power replaces principle and nuclear weapons spread not because they make anyone safer, but because no one is left to keep order.
Patricia M Kim is a Fellow with a joint appointment to the John L Thornton China Center and the Center for Asia Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution.