COMMENT: You have always stated that wars are created by the leaders, not the people. The majority of Israelis do not want Netanyahu to run again. According to a poll released this week by the Israel Democracy Institute, it found that 61% of Israelis, including 27% of Likud members, do not want to see Netanyahu run again this fall. The same proportion said they want to see Israel adopt a two-term limit for prime ministers in the future.
I understand your criticism of Netanyahu that this is an endless war that does not end well for us, according to your computer. There has to be some long-term solution, and sending missiles back and forth will not resolve this. Do you have any update for us here in Israel?
V
REPLY: I know, we have a lot of readers in Israel. The greenback is starting to position itself for a rally and we still have a major directional change in 2027. I agree with you that the real problem here is that there is no military victory. Netanyahu has sold his Neocon theory and he always assumes that if you assassinate the leader, you are cutting off the head of the snake and you win. The logic behind it is known as the “better the devil you know” or the “decapitation paradox.” Often, the second-in-command is less capable, less charismatic, or lacks the same control over factions. This can lead to a less effective or more moderate successor. If you kill the leader, the entire command structure that could negotiate a ceasefire or surrender is gone. You might be left fighting a fragmented, leaderless, and even more vengeful enemy for years. Killing a charismatic leader can turn him into a martyr, inspiring a new wave of recruits and making negotiation with his followers politically impossible. Netanyahu’s strategy is by no means foolproof especially since Iran countered by decentralizing. Taiwan is now adopting the Iran model of decentralization.
Like Iraq, they focused on removing Saddam. They NEVER consider what comes next. Netanyahu puts out the same BS I have heard about Russia. Get rid of Putin and the people will rise up and give the Neocons a tickertape parade. They made the same argument about Iraq. It did not happen there either. Iran decentralized its government knowing Netanyahu’s strategy of assassinating. You hear Rubio now saying they are having to negotiate with the 3rd tier of leaders.
Trump is trying to get out of this mess but Netanyahu is up for possible reelection. Trump has been saying that he was unsure if Netanyahu would press forward in the elections. Netanyahu’s party has rejected speculation that he might not run in Israel’s election this fall, following an offhand comment by U.S. President Donald Trump.
We have a clash of self-interests where Netanyahu is being criticized there by his opposition that he has achieved nothing including no regime change or the people rising up. This makes Netanyahu anti-peace or he has to admit failure. In the USA, there are the midterms and if Trump does not end this before, he looks like a failure. These two elections are on a collision course.
It just does not seem to be peace on the horizon long-term.