After a hugely successful regular season, second-year New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye has emerged as a leading contender for the NFL Most Valuable Player award.
According to ESPN Bet, Maye and Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford are the top two favorites, with the New England signal-caller holding the best odds at +225 as of Jan. 16.
This season, Maye threw for 31 touchdowns against just eight interceptions, while Stafford posted 46 touchdowns with the same interception total.
Supporters of Stafford’s candidacy often point to Maye’s relatively easier schedule and lower touchdown total, but those arguments fail to hold up under closer examination.
Here’s why Maye deserves to be named the 2025 NFL MVP, which will be announced Feb. 5:
Quality of TDs
Raw touchdown totals don’t tell the full story. Context matters.
Of Stafford’s 46 touchdown passes, 13 came from the opponent’s three-yard line or closer. His average touchdown throw traveled 13.8 yards.
Maye, by contrast, threw only six touchdowns from inside the three-yard line, and his average touchdown pass traveled 18.33 yards.
While Stafford’s volume statistics are impressive, a deeper look reveals that Maye generated his production from more difficult throws, strengthening his MVP case.
Other advanced stats
Advanced analytics further separate the two quarterbacks. Expected points added per play (EPA) and completion percentage over expectation (CPOE) are two of the best indicators of quarterback efficiency.
The elite performers reside in the top-right quadrant when these metrics are charted together. By those standards, Maye stands clearly above the field, outperforming Stafford across both measures.