Indore, India: Mahesh Patel, a soya bean farmer in the central Indian state of Madhya Pradesh, has been disappointed with the dismal produce in the just-concluded harvesting season.
The 57-year-old, who has more than 3 hectares (7.4 acres) of fertile land, told Al Jazeera that the production of soya beans has suffered a major blow across the state due to excessive rain, which destroyed his standing crops.
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“The production is just about 9,000kg”, one-fifth of what it should be, Patel said.
At the same time, prices of corn, which is grown in the proximity of soya beans, have crashed, as the excessive rain led to a bumper crop.
But farmers like Patel have bigger issues about which to worry.
The two agrarian items, which are grown extensively for livestock and human consumption and considered to be among the world’s most crucial row crops, are one of the key elements in the ongoing trade discussions between India and the United States.
So far, President Donald Trump has imposed 50 percent tariffs on India, pushing several industries that export heavily to the US to the brink of collapse.
One of the sticking points in trade negotiations is the US’s access to India’s agriculture sector. Washington wants New Delhi to open its market to genetically modified (GM) soya and corn.
The GM technology involves altering plant DNA to introduce new traits that help speed up production compared with traditional breeding.
The US is the world’s second-largest producer of soya beans after Brazil, accounting for 28 percent, or 119.05 million metric tonnes, of global production.
China was the biggest buyer of US soya beans until the trade war with Beijing led to a slump in sales.
Suman Sahai, the founder of Gene Campaign, a nonprofit working for farmers, said the US desperately needs a market for its soya beans and corn, because China, its one-time top buyer, has dramatically scaled back its purchases.
“Trump has to sell this soya and corn so as not to annoy his big political base of the soya [and] corn farmers,” she said.
India’s reluctance
India has so far held off the imports of GM-variety soya beans and corn on the grounds that it produces non-GM, or organic, crops, which have a global niche market and could be undermined by the perception of GM varieties diluting the strain.
India produces about 13.05 million tonnes of soya beans, with Madhya Pradesh alone yielding more than half.
India’s corn production stands at approximately 42 million tonnes, 20 percent of which is used in making fuel-grade ethanol. The country is self-sufficient in its corn output but imports soya oil for cooking purposes because of a lack of processing infrastructure for edible oil.
Farmers of soya and corn, however, complain that they are already being ripped off by traders who pay below the price set by the government. On top of that are the steep costs of fertilisers, seeds and other farm items, coupled with the erratic rainfall that has destroyed crops.
“The traders set the prices at their will, as the government does not buy from us. We are unable to even recover the production cost,” said Prakash Patel, 50, a corn farmer in Madhya Pradesh.
“The profit is a distant dream for us, and we still have to pay the loans we took to buy our farming materials.”
Farmers worry that these losses would be exacerbated if US goods enter the Indian market.
A farmer in India typically produces about 1 metric tonne of soya beans in 0.40 hectares (1 acre). But GM soya bean yield can go up to 3 metric tonnes over the same land area, said Nirbhay Singh, a soya farmer in the state’s Piploda village.
Corn exporter Hemant Jain also worries about how US goods entering India may affect exports.
“The soya and corn from India have a major demand in the international market due to their non-GM quality,” Jain said.
“The import of GM material would create a doubt of adulteration in the minds of foreign buyers, who might be reluctant to buy from us.”
Indra Shekhar Singh, an independent agrarian analyst in New Delhi, said farmers in India have average land holdings of about 2 hectares (5 acres), on which five to seven members of a family work and rely for food and livelihood. They often also have to work on other people’s land as labourers for more income.
This is unlike the US, where farmers have vast stretches of land for cultivation and, depending on the crop, receive heavy subsidies from the government.
“The US is trying to find an alternative market to China, but Indian farmers can’t win against the US government’s subsidised agri-commodities. They would capture the complete market in a few years, leaving our farmers in deep poverty and helplessness,” Singh said.
Strong lobby at work
However, some scientists and industry watchers believe there are benefits to GM production of soya and corn in India.
A senior scientist working with the Indian government on GM technology told Al Jazeera on condition of anonymity because they are not authorised to speak to the media that the introduction of the technology would allow farmers to use specific herbicides to control weeds without harming the crop.
“The GM technology is insect-resistant, and it would help to reduce the need for spraying insecticides and lower costs for farmers. Besides, production also increases massively in the GM technique that helps farmers to minimise their losses.”
Kawaljeet Bhatia, 52, a poultry feed supplier in India, said the production of corn and soya beans would increase manifold with the introduction of GM varieties, which would help farmers and businesses like his, which are part of the production chain.
But he suggested that the government develop its own GM seeds, instead of importing them.
“A handful of exporters receive a premium price, as they claim to export organic products. They want that status to continue as it benefits them. It is just a matter of time when we have to switch to GM for increased productivity,” Bhatia said.
The Indian government is being cautious, political analysts told Al Jazeera. Agriculture contributes 18 percent to the gross domestic product (GDP) and supports 46 percent of its population.
“The government is acting with caution, taking lessons from the massive farmers’ protest that had rocked the nation in 2020-21,” Sibaji Pratim Basu, an independent political commentator in Kolkata, West Bengal, told Al Jazeera, referring to the yearlong protests by tens of thousands of farmers in northern India against three farm laws introduced by the government. The protests ended only after the government withdrew those rules.
“There are already hiccups in India-US relations due to tariffs that have badly hit several businesses in India dependent on the US market. The government is definitely concerned about its vote bank before taking any decision,” he said.