Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Ty Simpson is putting the cart before the horse.
On Wednesday, ESPN college sports insider Pete Thamel reported that Simpson informed Alabama coaches earlier in the day that he will turn pro, making him eligible for the 2026 NFL Draft.
But after a rocky end to his first season as a collegiate starter, Simpson might be leaping a year too soon.
Why Ty Simpson’s NFL Draft move is questionable
While it makes sense for Simpson to leave Alabama, the decision to declare for the draft could be costly, both in the short and long term.
After being benched in the New Year’s Day loss to Indiana, it was time for Simpson and Alabama to explore other options. Austin Mack, a 6-foot-6 sophomore, replaced Simpson and offers upside going into 2026, as does freshman five-star Keelon Russell, who played sparingly this season but was 11-of-15 for 143 yards and two touchdowns.
On3’s Pete Nakos reported early Wednesday that “several programs” were prepared to pursue Simpson in the transfer portal if he remained in college, and it’s easy to envision him with a similar arc to Miami quarterback Carson Beck, who left Georgia last season after spending five years with the program, including two as the starter.
Per Front Office Sports, Beck’s name, image and likeness (NIL) package at Miami is an estimated $4 million, and Simpson could have commanded as much, if not more, this year.
Thamel notes that Simpson currently ranks No. 3 among quarterbacks in ESPN NFL Draft insider Mel Kiper Jr.’s big board. However, after his No. 1 in the 2025 class (Shedeur Sanders) fell to the fifth round, Kiper’s rankings might not align with how NFL front offices view Simpson.
The 6-foot-2, 208-pound quarterback settled in nicely after a Week 1 loss to Florida State, averaging 275.9 passing yards per game while completing 69.2 percent of his pass attempts with 19 touchdowns and one interception during the Tide’s ensuing eight-game win streak.
During the team’s 3-3 stretch to end the season, his play deteriorated as he went 107-of-177 (60.5 percent) for 1,106 yards (184.3 yards per game), seven touchdowns and four interceptions. Simpson struggled with pressure, completing 48.3 percent of his attempts while under duress and being credited with 12 turnover-worthy plays by Pro Football Focus. Only Virginia Tech’s Kyron Drones and USC’s Jayden Maiava had more (13).
Any team looking for a quarterback at or near the top of Round 1 also has weaknesses along the offensive line. Without a plan to improve the trenches, adding Simpson likely won’t lead to an immediate turnaround.
He’d have to go in the top 10 to make his decision to turn pro financially wise. The No. 10 overall pick is set to make $5.4M in the first year of his rookie contract, but Simpson might not be worth that high of a pick.
As ESPN’s Mike Greenberg noted, NFL Draft analyst Field Yates recently had Simpson going in the mid-20s in his most recent 2026 mock draft, up from No. 31 in his first published to ESPN in December 2025. A player selected between Nos. 20-29 will make anywhere from $3.17M-$3.66M as a rookie. (h/t Spotrac)
Simpson would have benefited from spending another year in college, not just to secure a larger payday but also to gain more experience. With only one spotty season leading the first-team offense, he’s far from a safe bet at the NFL level.
Replicating his early season success at Alabama elsewhere may have been revelatory. Instead, any team selecting him will be taking a massive leap of faith.