The NBA is about to get serious regarding its tanking problem, and it could have some big rule changes in place as soon as next season.
NBA commissioner Adam Silver recently said the league’s tanking problem is probably as bad as it has ever been, while at least one owner called tanking teams “losers.”
While the strategy is not exactly new from a team-building perspective, some teams have become absolutely shameless in their quest to finish near the bottom of the league this season in order to boost their NBA Draft lottery odds.
Now the league plans to do something about it.
The league has several ideas that could be in place next season
ESPN’s Shams Charania reported on Thursday that the league has been meeting to discuss several anti-tanking concepts that could be put into play next season.
“Multiple sources with knowledge of Thursday’s meeting as well as a late January competition committee meeting told ESPN that these concepts have been discussed to curb tanking:
- First-round draft picks can be protected only for top-four or top-14-plus selections
- Lottery odds freeze at the trade deadline or a later date
- No longer allowing a team to pick in the top four in consecutive years and/or after consecutive bottom-three finishes
- Teams can’t pick in the top four the year after making conference finals
- Lottery odds allocated based on two-year records
- Lottery extended to include all play-in teams
- Flatten odds for all lottery teams”
There are some ideas here that make sense and some that could prove to be counterproductive.
The most problematic, at least on an individual level, would be flattening the odds for all lottery teams and potentially even allocating the odds over two-year records. Most teams that tank realize it is probably going to be more than a one-year endeavor, and if they are willing to flush one season down the toilet, what would stop them from flushing a second? The Philadelphia 76ers in the Sam Hinkie “trust the process era” were not afraid of losing multiple seasons.
Flattening the odds might also make it so more teams try to bottom out. It would actually drag more teams into it because if they had the same odds with the fourth-worst record as they would with the worst record they might see that as further incentive to lose.
The most effective ideas would be the ones centered around not allowing teams to pick in the top-four in consecutive years and potentially freezing the odds at the deadline.
While freezing the odds at the deadline might not prevent a team from tanking its roster at the start of the season, it would certainly prevent them from pulling starters after the trade deadline (the way the Utah Jazz and Indiana Pacers recently have), or trading for players with the intent of sitting them the rest of the season (as the Washington Wizards have done with Trae Young and Anthony Davis).
In the end, it is going to take a combination of these rules to truly make a dent in the number of teams that try to tank. Even then, it still remains to be seen how effective it will be. As long as their is a draft, teams are going to find way to best position themselves to find the best players. They will just have to get more creative and find ways to stay ahead of the rules. The lottery itself was supposed to be an anti-tanking measure. That obviously has not worked since we are still discussing it and how to stop it.