Israel has attacked Beirut’s southern suburbs only two days after Lebanon’s president announced the country had succumbed to an Israeli pressure campaign and agreed to hold negotiations.
Israel on Sunday killed five people and wounded 28 others, according to Lebanon’s Ministry of Health, in an attack that reportedly targeted Haytham Ali Tabatabai, Hezbollah’s chief of staff, in the city’s Haret Hreik neighbourhood.
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Israeli officials and media have warned of a renewed escalation against Lebanon in recent weeks, claiming Hezbollah is regrouping and rearming. Meanwhile, Lebanon’s government has come under pressure from Israel via its main benefactor, the United States, as both countries urge it to move faster to disarm Hezbollah and meet with Israelis for direct talks.
Israel has ‘the upper hand’
Lebanon’s leadership had pushed for indirect negotiations with Israel, even though the issue is divisive inside the country. Just two days before Israel’s attack on Beirut’s suburb, Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun addressed the issue.
“The Lebanese state is ready to negotiate under the UN, US or joint international sponsorship – any agreement that would establish a framework for a permanent end to transborder aggressions,” Aoun announced on Friday from Tyr, a southern city that suffered extensive damage during last year’s war.
Aoun did not say explicitly whether or not the talks would be direct. Analysts, however, told Al Jazeera that Israel’s recent uptick in attacks indicates it is not looking to negotiate.
Israel “has got the upper hand militarily at the moment, and they don’t seem to be interested in negotiating in earnest”, Nicholas Blanford, a nonresident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council, told Al Jazeera.
“They’re quite happy sniping away at Hezbollah on a daily basis … Lebanon is doing what they can under the circumstances, but I don’t think they have a willing interlocutor in the Israelis at this stage.”
Despite an ostensible ceasefire, Israel has intensified attacks in Lebanon’s south and Bekaa Valley in recent days. At least 13 people were killed by an Israeli strike on Lebanon’s largest Palestinian refugee camp last week, in an attack that killed mostly children and marked the highest death toll in a single strike since a ceasefire was agreed in November last year.
Israel has killed more than 300 people in Lebanon since then, including around 127 civilians, according to the United Nations. It also continues to occupy at least five points in south Lebanon, despite the ceasefire stating Israel would withdraw its troops from Lebanese territory.
“The problem is that Israel is not interested in negotiating at the moment. It wants to eliminate Hezbollah or push the Lebanese army into a clash with the party,” Kassem Kassir, a Lebanese journalist close to Hezbollah, told Al Jazeera.
“Every time Aoun or [Prime Minister Nawaf] Salam talk about negotiations, Israel escalates its aggression.”
Israel ‘should demonstrate good faith’
Sunday’s attack is the first on Beirut’s southern suburbs in months and, should Tabatabai’s assassination be confirmed, marks the highest-ranking Hezbollah target killed since the ceasefire. The attack also comes a week to the day before Pope Leo XIV’s planned visit to the country and a day after Lebanon mutedly celebrated its 82nd independence day.
US and Israeli officials have warned Lebanon of an intensification should the country not move faster to disarm Hezbollah. In August, Lebanon’s cabinet approved a plan to have the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) disarm Hezbollah and bring the group’s weapons under the state’s control. Hezbollah has refused to relinquish its weapons, saying the move serves Israel.
Still, the Lebanese army has been criticised by some US officials for moving too slowly in disarming Hezbollah. Analysts say the Lebanese government has also been criticised for failing to establish a political consensus on the divisive issue.
But Israel’s actions are undermining the Lebanese government’s efforts, according to analysts. After Lebanon’s cabinet approved the plan to disarm Hezbollah, US Special Envoy Tom Barrack visited Israel in an effort to get its military to stop attacks and withdraw troops from the Lebanese territory. He came back empty-handed.
The US recently cancelled a planned trip by Lebanon’s army chief Rodolphe Haykal to Washington, DC after the LAF issued a statement critical of Israel. Haykal had previously proposed suspending LAF operations on disarming Hezbollah until Israel stops its attacks.
“If Israel actively wants to enter and succeed in negotiations, it should demonstrate good faith in entering, and ways for that would be to at least reduce attacks on Lebanese territory or withdraw from some points in the south. They could create a positive dynamic to develop a consensus,” David Wood, the International Crisis Group’s senior analyst for Lebanon, told Al Jazeera.
Choices before Hezbollah
Since last November’s ceasefire, Hezbollah has only responded to Israeli attacks once. Under its new Secretary-General Naim Qassem, the group has largely shown restraint.
Still, there are concerns in Lebanon that the group may decide to soon change tactics.
“There is definitely a mood to strike back against the Israelis, not just from today’s attack but in general,” Blanford said. “But they know very well that if they do, the Israelis will escalate, and no one in Lebanon will thank Hezbollah for doing that.”
Israel’s military superiority and its US backing leave Hezbollah and the Lebanese state with few choices. Currently in Lebanon, the issue of negotiations with Israel and Hezbollah’s disarmament is divisive.
Analysts said many in the country fervently oppose direct negotiations, though the government has expressed a willingness to enter indirect talks, similar to 2022’s maritime agreement between Israel and Lebanon.
Many in Lebanon, including Hezbollah’s supporters, say they would be open to seeing Israel withdraw its troops from southern Lebanon and demarcate the border. Few welcome a renewed aggression, suggesting diplomacy as a likely preference.
But analysts say that would require Israel to respect the agreements it enters into, including the various ceasefire deals it has repeatedly violated.
“What we’ve seen since the ceasefire is that Israel speaks more loudly with actions than words,” Wood said. “Opponents [of negotiations] can point to Israel’s behaviour in Lebanon, Syria and Gaza, and say Israel is not bound by its own agreements.”