New York Rangers general manager Chris Drury has made it clear, by repeating history, that his side are open for business as the Olympic break and trade deadline approach.
Artemi Panarin will be gone. It’s likely that a raft of veterans will follow him out the door. Will former first overall pick Alexis Lafreniere be one of those leaving Madison Square Garden?
Alexis Lafreniere has foundational potential
There is an army of people who will tell you that the Rangers faltered in taking Lafreniere with the first pick in 2020. He was, though, the consensus top pick, no matter who held that selection. Over three seasons with Rimouski Oceanic in the QMJHL, Lafreniere racked up 327 points in 193 games, earning comparisons to David Pasternak and Alex Ovechkin.
Lafreniere is clearly an outstanding talent. He possesses a wicked wrister, great vision, can stickhandle with the best of them and can turn on a dime. It was only a couple of seasons ago that Lafreniere emerged as a 22-year-old, posting 57 points in 82 games. More impressively, he was arguably the Rangers best skater throughout the playoffs, especially against the reigning – and eventual – champion Florida Panthers, with 14 points over 16 games.
That was two seasons ago, and he has struggled since (hardly the only Ranger to do so). But when he turns it on, he is absolutely world class. His performance against Florida in the Winter Classic was exceptional, leading the Rangers to a dominant upset win with the first three-assist game of his professional career.
The NHL is the first time in his hockey life that Lafreniere hasn’t been the clear best player on his team. As much as a rebuilding and/or retooling Rangers team might struggle to bury the biscuit, could Lafreniere begin to find himself again when there is no Panarin or Vincent Trochek to dominate the play? Does he embrace responsibility? Do we begin to see those elite turns? That visionary playmaking? The laser guided wrist shots?
Most importantly, do we see Lafreniere regain his edge? The killer instinct that made him a top pick?
What if he doesn’t? What if this occasionally brilliant but often infuriating player is simply what Lafreniere is? Even if he plateaus as a 60-point-per-season player, at a $7.45m cap hit, that’s perfectly acceptable in the new cap environment.
Is Alexis Lafreniere a product of his surroundings?
Back in 2023, this writer questioned Lafreniere’s off-ice professionalism and ability to be a cog in a machine as opposed to the fulcrum of an attack. While he may find a new gear when the offense is built around him, it’s more likely that Lafreniere’s laissez-faire attitude to the sport means that he’ll likely never reach his prodigious potential.
That also raises the question: is Lafreniere a symptom, rather than a cause?
Is “‘Laffy’s” best season simply a result of playing alongside Trochek (77 points that season) and Panarin (120 points), all three enjoying career years? Given Panarin and Trocheck have continued to produce at a solid pace even as the Rangers form has plummeted over the past two campaigns, Lafreniere has fallen away sharply, suggesting that he isn’t a driver of play. Rather, he’s a symptom. If his team play well, he shines. If not, Lafreniere struggles alongside them.
To that end, if both of those two get moved, does Lafreniere struggle further without elite playmakers next to him? Rather than embracing the responsibility of leading a line, does he wilt under the pressure?
The verdict
Lafreniere’s trade value has never been lower. A lack of acceptable offers for a talented, if perplexing, player may lead the Rangers to hold him and see what he can do with increased responsibility.
That said, the Rangers culture is evidently horrible. Lafreniere doesn’t strike anybody as the type of personality who can lead a locker room reboot. Does that mean Drury takes a hit now, knowing that his value could possibly drop further?
It seems more likely that the Rangers only move on a trade with a solid return, which is unlikely to eventuate. That said, it only takes one Lafreniere believer.