The College Football Playoff No. 1 Indiana Hoosiers are a win away from completing sport’s first 16-0 season since 1894.
Yet in a rush to crown Indiana among the greatest teams in college football history, the No. 10 Miami Hurricanes are being taken for granted ahead of Monday’s national championship game. That’s a mistake.
While the undefeated Hoosiers have earned the right to be favored over the two-loss Hurricanes, it shouldn’t surprise anyone if Miami pulls off the win on Monday.
Below, we take a look at three things Miami must do to win its first national title since 2001 and spoil Indiana’s historic season.
Don’t beat itself
Despite largely controlling the semifinal win over the Ole Miss Rebels, Miami kept things interesting by playing undisciplined football. The Canes finished the 31-27 win with 10 penalties and lost the turnover battle, 1-0, nullifying their over 2-to-1 advantage in time of possession and superior third-down conversion rate (57.9%-20%). Ole Miss helped Miami by settling for four field goals, but Indiana’s efficient offense — it’s scored 12 touchdowns on 18 non-end-of-game drives — won’t be as genial.
Create turnovers
Heisman-winning Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza has a remarkable eight passing touchdowns and five incompletions through the Hoosiers’ first two CFP games. He’s been simply unbelievable, but the Hurricanes must make him human. In Indiana’s closest games — the Big Ten title game, at Penn State and at Oregon — Mendoza threw an interception in each game, including a pick-six against Oregon.
Miami stunned the defending national champion Ohio State Buckeyes in the quarterfinals with help from cornerback Keionte Scott’s 72-yard interception return for a touchdown, and the secondary must be up to the task to take the ball away from an elite set of Hoosiers wideouts (Charlie Becker, Omar Cooper, Elijah Sarratt).
Indiana has had the greatest fumble luck of any team in the country this year, losing only one of eight (12.5 percent), per cfbstats.com. If the Canes gain possess of an Indiana loose ball, it might be the biggest sign that the football gods are in their favor.
Keep Indiana behind schedule
The Hoosiers are hard to derail. They’re first in FBS in third-down conversion rate (58.2 percent), and Mendoza leads the country with 15 touchdowns on third-down. Miami has held its first three CFP opponents to 13-of-38 (34.2 percent) on third down, making this a battle of strength-vs-strength.
Indiana puts itself in favorable positions to convert by taking shorter gains on first and second down, putting an onus on the Hurricanes’ front seven to wreak havoc with tackles for loss in the run game and sacks on dropbacks on those early downs.
Edge-rushers Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor have combined for 143 total pressures this season, while interior linemen Ahmad Moten Sr. and Justin Scott provide heft in the middle of the defense and will be paramount to stopping running backs Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black.
It will take a mix of Miami playing its best game and Indiana its worst for Monday’s title game to subvert expectations. Based on the first three rounds, the Hurricanes can make things much more difficult for the Hoosiers than in the quarters and semis when they defeated Alabama and Oregon by a combined score of 94-25. But to perfect the role of spoiler, Miami must excel at all the little things. Then, Indiana’s fairytale could turn into tragedy.