Regardless of the outcome, there are lessons to learn from the NHL conference finalists Dallas, Edmonton, Florida and Carolina.
Here are three takeaways from the NHL’s final four.
1. The superstars may matter more than you think.
There’s a common refrain that has developed in the analytics era: Stars and superstars don’t matter as much as you think. That’s because even the best players in the world won’t play half a game.
Despite this, the well-established regular-season superstars look dialed in this postseason. Connor McDavid kept the Oilers afloat after a difficult start in the opening round, when Edmonton trailed Los Angeles 2-0. In the next two games, McDavid’s five points (one goal, four assists) in 52:30 of ice time helped save Edmonton’s season from a premature demise.
Meanwhile, the performances of the Dallas Stars’ Mikko Rantanen against Colorado and Winnipeg included a stretch of 14 points in four games. Plus, he led a headline-grabbing, third-period comeback in Game 7 against the Avalanche, his former team.
If stars are a big part of team success during the regular season, they need to be a big part of team success during the postseason.
2. Getting to the playoffs matters. Winning in the playoffs matters more.
This debate has taken on a life of its own among hockey media.
Winger Mitch Marner finished the playoffs with one point in the last four games of Toronto’s season. Marner just completed his first 100-point regular season, and his 92 points per 82-game prorated career average puts him firmly between superstars Nathan MacKinnon (96) of Colorado and Rantanen (89).
Conversely, Florida center Sam Bennett has received support in some major league circles to become the next $10M player despite being about average among scorers at his position. Bennett, like Marner, is a fourth overall pick. He had a slow start to his career offensively, but he has scored at a respectable 52 points per 82-game pace over the past five regular seasons. On his regular seasons alone, he’s not worth $10M a season.
In the past three playoffs, however, he is seventh in goals (21) and first in hits (253). Raw counting stats can be tricky to evaluate, but few players are near the top of the leaderboard in both. Bennett won’t likely tip the scales tremendously in terms of helping get a team to the postseason, but his play is tipping the scales in helping his team win in the postseason in a critical role.
AFP Analytics, a free contract projection tool, doesn’t expect him to get near $10M, but it’s clear Bennett is in line for a big pay raise this summer because of his postseason play.
3. Cap hits aren’t always directly comparable.
AFP’s average projection for Marner is around seven years and $13M annually. Someone is probably going to pay this — maybe even exceed it. NHL teams are businesses, and the value of selling a fan base on being competitive is critical with 41 home dates each year.
That doesn’t make Marner a better player than Bennett or Bennett a better player than Marner. If anything, Marner will likely pay for his postseason shortcomings in a different way — less money than other players of his reputation or ultimately signing in a worse situation.
Bennett, meanwhile, will probably be paid a premium compared to the average second-line center as a result for the opposite reasons. That probably won’t get him to $10M annually, but no one will shed a tear for a guy who might flirt with $8M annually.