Did China already have this capability?
Yes – but it is evolving.
China has had SLBM capability for some time, but its submarine fleet has historically lagged behind those of the US and Russia, particularly in stealth.
Analysts said the latest test shows growing confidence in China’s submarine operations, missile reliability and command systems.
Dr Malcolm Davis, senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, said the launch demonstrated the effectiveness of China’s sea-based nuclear deterrent and its ability to project power over long distances.
Was the timing deliberate?
The timing has drawn attention, coming just hours after Australia and Fiji signed a new defence pact. The Ocean of Peace alliance commits Australia and Fiji to defend each other if attacked.
With China and Western powers vying for influence in the Pacific, some analysts believe the timing was intentional.
Dr Davis said the test could be seen as a signal of China’s displeasure at Pacific nations strengthening defence ties with Western partners.
“Although it is highly likely that China had been preparing for this test for some weeks, they chose the very day that Australia and Fiji signed an important mutual defence alliance agreement,” Dr Davis told CNA.
“Had China wanted to avoid linking this test to that treaty signing, they could have easily delayed the test a week, but they deliberately chose to conduct the test within hours of the treaty signing.”
On the other hand, Morris noted that such launches are typically planned months or even years in advance.
“Even if China intended to time the launch with a historical event, much depends on submarine crew readiness and weather, which can change at a moment’s notice,” he said.
Roggeveen likewise viewed the timing as coincidental, but said Beijing’s decision not to postpone the test still sent a message.
“The fact that Albanese’s Pacific tour did not rise to a level of importance in Beijing to warrant a delay of the test is itself an indicator of where China’s priorities lie,” he said.