Europe, too, appears to be preparing for the possibility of a deal.
On Friday, the Council of the European Union extended its sanctions framework against Iran, specifically targeting those deemed to undermine freedom of navigation in the Middle East. Yet, no specific individual or entity was named, which adds pressure on Iranian negotiators but preserves room to reach a deal on reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
This move positions the EU for a potential role in implementing any new arrangements to uphold freedom of navigation in the strait, similar to the role it already plays in the Red Sea with its Operation Aspides. It also adds to the bloc’s independent diplomatic leverage: The EU can impose sanctions but also remove them in exchange for a deal, and can do so independently of the US.
REOPENING STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS THE EASIER PART
All of these developments, however, also expose two long-term structural vulnerabilities.
The immediate priority for current diplomatic efforts is clear: prevent a return to all-out war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This may be possible as a temporary agreement.
But the more fundamental disputes remain unresolved, namely Iran’s nuclear enrichment capabilities, its ballistic missiles programme and its support for regional proxies. These are issues over which sustainable agreement has eluded negotiators for a long time and the stated positions on both sides make any compromise extremely difficult to achieve.