Opinion | Why Iranians Believe They Have the Upper Hand

The Iranians effectively believe that they have the upper hand at this point in time. And so they have indicated that they don’t really see themselves as prepared to negotiate directly with Washington, nor are they particularly inclined to compromise with the United States. Why do they believe they have the upper hand? They can afford to wait. They have already suffered, as you know, tremendous losses to the leadership. This has had a terrible impact on Iranian cities across the country. But in fact, in effect, they’re able to — they have the advantage of time. We’ve never had a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz. We’ve never had this length of disruption in terms of oil exports. And as you note, other petrochemicals and commodities that are key to the global economy. This is something that is completely unprecedented. And in effect, markets haven’t fully priced in the potential impact at this point in time. Americans are still effectively paying the price at the gas pump that is determined by production in the United States. And by supplies on hand. But as the disruption is priced in, we will be seeing not just $4 and $5 and $6 prices for gasoline at the pump, but much, much higher. My understanding is that we are entering this period where the closure of the strait is going to start really biting the global flow of energy and commodities that we’ve been in a period where tankers that had already gone through were still arriving at ports around the world. But we’re moving into something where you’re going to cease having the landings in Asia of energy tankers that had been needed in Europe. Fertilizer is about to get crunched. That right now we’ve been really worrying about futures, and people are pricing things higher out of fear of the future. But we’re about to hit the point where these shortages become material in the present. And for the Iranians that they see their leverage increasing very, very rapidly in the coming weeks. Is that accurate? How would you complicate that? Talk to me a bit about that question of the coming timing. I think that’s exactly right. And it will play out, as you note, in all sectors of the economy, particularly food and commodity prices. Chips are going to be impacted by the limits and supply of helium. And so that will have an impact on all the tech that we buy. Everything from our televisions to our cars could be impacted as a result of this. So Prime Minister Modi in India compared this to effectively Covid and the pandemic and the impact on global supply chains. I think that that is a very apt comparison, particularly if this extends over the course of another month or so, and that is going to be something that the United States is going to hear from all of its partners and allies when it’s engaged in diplomacy, that they are looking to see an end to this war, too. And so for the Iranians, they are prepared. This is an existential crisis. They’re prepared to wait this out as long as they can. And I think that’s the real question now: Who blinks first?