With the Sweet 16 set to begin on Thursday, most of the national title favorites entering the NCAA Tournament still remain. Although that is the case, there are some programs that could play spoiler to the top seeds as the field gets trimmed from 16 to four by the end of the week.
Here are three under-the-radar title contenders heading into the Sweet 16:
No. 1 seeds Michigan (+300), Arizona (+370) and Duke (+430) are the favorites to cut down the nets in April, according to FanDuel. However, the Cougars (+650) are close behind after finishing runner-up to Florida last season.
The Cougars are one of five teams with a top-15 adjusted offensive and defensive rating, per KenPom. Without a consistent threat inside, though, Houston tends to go for long scoring droughts, which could be an issue in Thursday’s meeting against a three-seeded Illinois team that ranks 17th in scoring offense (84.7 PPG).
If Houston takes care of business against Illinois (26-8, 15-5 Big Ten), it will either face the four-seed Nebraska (28-6, 15-5 Big Ten) or nine-seed Iowa (23-12, 10-10 Big Ten) after the top seed in the South region, Florida, was stunned by the Hawkeyes in the second round.
Iowa State’s title hopes could hinge on the status of leading scorer Joshua Jefferson, who suffered a left ankle injury in the first-round win over 15-seed Tennessee State and did not play in Sunday’s second-round win over seven-seed Kentucky.
While head coach T.J. Otzelberger said he would be a game-time decision for Friday’s showdown against six-seed Tennessee (24-11, 11-7 SEC), the Cyclones still have a potent offense. Junior forward Milan Momcilovic is the nation’s best three-point shooter (49.26%) and senior guard Tamin Lipsey spearheads a defense that forces the sixth-most turnovers per game (15.4).
A potential Elite Eight meeting with one-seed Michigan could await, but the Wolverines are without sophomore guard L.J. Cason due to a torn right ACL. The Cyclones have a path to a title run, but a lack of depth and poor free-throw shooting (67.2%) could come back to bite them.
Head coach Tom Izzo only added to his March lore after the Spartans advanced to their 17th Sweet 16 under his leadership following a second-round win over six-seed Louisville. In that game, guard Jeremy Fears Jr. set a program record with 16 assists.
Michigan State specifically excels in the paint and on the glass, but it struggles taking care of the ball at times and defending the long ball. With that said, it has wins over Arkansas, Illinois and Purdue this season and only lost to top-seed Duke by six.
Michigan State’s Sweet 16 opponent, two-seed Connecticut (31-5, 17-3 Big East) and Purdue (29-8, 13-7 Big Ten), each have better national title odds. However, both teams have had inconsistent stretches or underwhelming results, while an Elite Eight matchup with the Duke-St. John’s winner is certainly favorable when you consider how the Blue Devils have looked in the Big Dance so far and the occasional offensive droughts the Red Storm have gone through.