Beirut, Lebanon – At the end of last year, Lebanon’s army first took journalists and then international diplomats on tours that were meant to show what had been achieved in terms of dismantling Hezbollah’s military infrastructure along the country’s southern border with Israel.
At the time, Israel was increasing threats to expand its attacks if Lebanon failed to disarm Hezbollah.
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The end of 2025 was the army’s self-imposed deadline to complete the first phase of its plan to bring all weapons in the country under state control.
Army commander Rodolphe Haykal said the tours were intended to highlight the army’s commitment to the efforts despite “its limited capabilities”. But he blamed Israel’s continued military actions and occupation of Lebanese territory along the border as complicating and undermining these efforts.
On January 8, Haykal will brief Lebanon’s government on the progress of the disarming mission. He’s expected to announce the completion of the plan’s first phase, which involves clearing the area between the Litani River, about 30km (19 miles) at its deepest point in Lebanon, and the country’s southern border with Israel.
But Israel already has a verdict on the army’s performance.
It says Hezbollah still has a presence close to the border and is rebuilding its military capabilities “faster than the army is dismantling [them]”. The United Nations peacekeeping force in southern Lebanon has a different take. It says there is “no evidence” that Hezbollah’s infrastructure has been rebuilt.
Israel also sent another message through its military actions days before the cabinet meeting.
It carried out intense air strikes on what it said were positions north of the Litani River some kilometres (miles) from the border in what a western diplomat said showed “Israel has no intention to wait for the army to move to the next phase to dismantle Hezbollah’s weapons.”
Litani River
“Israel has already shifted focus to phase two,” Joe Macaron, global fellow at the Wilson Center, told Al Jazeera. “And this phase is going to be different, difficult and challenging for the army.”
The second phase involves operations expanding north of the Litani River up to the Awali River north of the city of Sidon. “Hezbollah has made it clear there will be no disarmament north of the Litani, which means there is the possibility of political tension,” Macaron added.
Hezbollah, which has dismissed efforts to disarm it as a United States-Israeli plan, believes it has complied with a ceasefire agreement agreed with Israel because it understands the truce to apply “exclusively south of the Litani River”.
The November 2024 truce ended more than a year of hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel. The group’s critics in Lebanon say the ceasefire calls for the implementation of UN Resolution 1701, which mentions the disarmament of all non-state actors across Lebanon.
“With the Israeli enemy not implementing any of the steps of the agreement … Lebanon is no longer required to take any action on any level before the Israelis commit to what they are obligated to do,” Hezbollah’s Secretary-General Naim Qassem said.
Political consensus
Hezbollah was long considered the strongest military force in Lebanon, although it has been weakened by the war with Israel, when much of its leadership was killed.
The group retains the support of Lebanon’s Shia community, which it emerged from.
“Assuming the Lebanese state and the army commander would try to disarm Hezbollah north of the Litani, Hezbollah and also the majority of the Shia community is going to rise and try to prevent this. They will act and there will be a violent reaction if that scenario will happen,” Ali Rizk, a political and security analyst, told Al Jazeera. “The community feels they are facing a twin threat … one from Israel and the other from the new regime in Syria, so that is why they are more supportive of Hezbollah’s weapons.”
Lebanese Army commander Hakyal reportedly told a recent military meeting that the army is carefully planning for the next phases of disarmament. Officials know that without political consensus, there is a risk of internal conflict.
But Lebanon’s leadership, which pledged to reassert full state sovereignty, is under pressure. Israel has publicly said it will act “as necessary” if Lebanon fails to take steps against Hezbollah.
“The state is ready to move on to the second phase – namely [confiscating weapons] north of the Litani River – based on the plan prepared by the Lebanese army pursuant to a mandate from the government,” Lebanon’s Prime Minister Nawaf Salam said.
And then there is Iran.
Coinciding with Lebanon’s government meeting, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi will arrive in Beirut.
“There is no doubt there is a link between his visit and the army submitting its report before moving to phase 2,” Rizk explained. “Hezbollah is by far Iran’s number one ideological and strategic ally, and it will stop at nothing to prevent Hezbollah’s complete elimination by getting rid of its weapons.”