Trump’s second act creates several firsts

Hello and welcome to the working week.

Strap yourselves in. A new chapter begins on Monday at the Capitol building in Washington as Donald Trump takes the 35-word oath in the 60th presidential swearing-in ceremony, making him the 47th US president. This will be an event that is high on ceremony (read the full itinerary here), but will also break new ground. Trump will be the first convicted criminal and oldest commander-in-chief to enter the White House. Among the guests will be China’s vice-president Han Zheng, marking the first time a top Chinese official has attended a US inauguration. For only the third time, the swearing-in ceremony will coincide with the Martin Luther King Jr Day public holiday — recalling a very different event and speech in sight of the Capitol. Parts of the event have been moved inside — the first time this has been done since 1985. Trump is also only the second president, after Grover Cleveland, to win two non-consecutive terms. But this will not be a repeat performance. The guard rails are off.

Across the Atlantic, there will be another gathering of the world’s most powerful men and women. The annual World Economic Forum kicks off on Monday in the Alpine ski resort of Davos, but confidence among the delegates is likely to be muted. The organisation last week forecast weaker global economic conditions in 2025, despite a short-term US boost. The theme of this year’s gathering of the rich and powerful is Collaboration for the Intelligent Age, something that seems increasingly unlikely given the recent shifts in global politics.

The event attracts a range of globally recognised people. This year the architect Riken Yamamoto, designer Diane von Furstenberg and footballer David Beckham will be honoured at the opening ceremony in an award presentation for cultural leaders. Other attendees will include UK chancellor Rachel Reeves. Also in attendance will be the FT Live team, providing on-the-ground analysis and expertise as the week unfolds. Click here to register for updates.

The UK economy will be under the microscope again with the publication of the country’s unemployment figures on Tuesday, followed a day later by public sector finances data, which will include reasons for changes in net borrowing and debt. British farmers will be leaving their fields and hitting the city streets again to protest about the Labour government’s planned inheritance tax changes, with the National Union of Farmers organising town centre demonstrations around the country on Saturday.

Elsewhere, Belarus will hold a presidential election on Sunday. I can tell you who the winner will be: staunch ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin (which actually makes strategic sense) Alexander Lukashenko. He has been in power since 1994 and is known as “Europe’s last dictator”.

The Bank of Japan begins the run of rich nation monetary policy meetings at the end of the week, when it will also update its economic forecasts, with the inflation prediction expected to be revised higher. As a consequence many expect a further 25 basis points rate increase to 0.5 per cent. There will be other monetary policy rulings. China’s monthly Loan Prime Rate fixings are expected to remain unchanged — Beijing is more concerned about reviving strong growth in the country’s two-speed economy, in which strong exports and manufacturing are offsetting weak household sentiment. Turkey’s monetary board is expected to cut rates by a further 260bp to 45 per cent.

The results roadshow rolls on, even picking up the pace. British luxury brand Burberry reports results for its third quarter on Friday, including the crucial Christmas trading numbers, with investors expecting a progress update from chief executive Joshua Schulman on the company’s turnaround strategy (which you can read all about here) as it seeks to return profit to growth. Airlines are a theme, as are retail, financial and consumer goods companies with American Express, Johnson & Johnson, Netflix and Procter & Gamble among those reporting — there will no doubt be much to say on sales over the recent festive period. More details below.

One more thing . . . 

I have mixed feelings about the success of British teenager Luke Littler, who earlier this month became Professional Darts Corporation world champion, a game I love to play at the pub but have struggled to recognise as worthy of being called a professional world class sport. Anyway, on Tuesday Littler will notch up another milestone, which I think we can all agree is worthy of celebration: his 18th birthday. If you want to know why the sporting activity he has come to embody has become so big, read this.

Key economic and company reports

Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

Monday

• Thames Water’s debt restructuring plan is heard in High Court

• Gary Gensler steps down as the US Securities and Exchange Commission chair, to be succeeded by Paul Atkins

• China: prime loan rate announcement

• EU: Q3 GDP estimate update

• UK: January Rightmove House Price Index

• US: Martin Luther King Jr Day. Financial markets closed

Tuesday

• Boohoo holds a general meeting for shareholders to vote on proposed resolutions put forward by shareholder Frasers Group

• Canada: December consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate data

• UK: January labour market statistics

• Results: 3M Q4, Alstom Q3 orders and sales, BHP Group operational review, Capital One Financial Q4, Cranswick Q3 trading statement, DR Horton Q1, KeyCorp Q4, Kier Group trading update, Marshalls Q1 trading update, Marston’s AGM trading statement, Netflix Q4, Premier Foods Q3 trading update, Prologis Q4, Seagate Technology Q2, WAG Payment Solutions trading update, Yu Group trading update

Wednesday

• UK: December public sector finances data

• Results: Abbott Laboratories Q4, Alcoa Q4, Comerica Q4, easyJet Q1, Halliburton Q4, Johnson & Johnson Q4, JD Wetherspoon Q2, PensionBee Q4 trading update, Procter & Gamble Q2, Textron Q4, The Travelers Cos Q4, United Airlines Q4

Thursday

• Turkey: interest rate decision

• UK: CBI Industrial Trends Survey

• Results: American Airlines Q4, Associated British Foods trading update, CMC Markets Q3 trading update, CSX Q4, Discover Financial Services Q4, Forterra FY trading update, Fortescue December quarterly production report, Hyundai Motor Company Q4, IG Group HY, McCormick & Co Q4, Mitie Group Q3 trading update, Nidec Q3, Sandvik Q4, SK Hynix Q4, Swedbank FY, Texas Instruments Q4, Union Pacific Q4

Friday

• Eurozone, France, Germany, India, Japan, UK, US: S&P Global/HCOB flash manufacturing and services purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data

• Japan: monetary policy meeting announcement, plus December CPI inflation rate data

• UK: GfK Consumer Confidence Survey

• Results: American Express Q4, Burberry Q3, LG Energy Solution Q4, Paragon Banking Group Q1 trading update, Verizon Communications Q4

World events

Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.

Monday

• EU: Eurogroup meeting of Eurozone finance ministers ahead of tomorrow’s Economic and Financial Affairs Council (Ecofin) meeting of all the economic bloc’s finance ministers

• Switzerland: World Economic Forum begins in Davos, continuing until Friday

• US: Donald Trump’s inauguration ceremony in Washington

Tuesday

• France: Paris Menswear Fashion Week begins, running until Sunday

• UK: Parliament’s Home Affairs Committee will question the Independent Inquiry into Child Sexual Abuse chair Alexis Jay on how far her recommendations have been implemented

• US: Quad meeting of foreign ministers from the US, Japan, India and Australia in Washington

• Vatican City: Pope Francis will bless two lambs, brought from the Trappist abbey of Tre Fontane in Rome to mark the feast of Saint Agnes

Wednesday

• US: 45th Golden Raspberry awards, aka The Razzie Awards, honouring cinematic underachievement, announces its nominations for this year’s ceremony

Thursday

• Canada: Liberal party deadline to announce its candidacy in the leadership vote on March 9, following current Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation.

• China: fifth anniversary of Wuhan entering lockdown, amid growing concerns about what would become the Covid-19 pandemic

• Pitcairn Islands: Burning of the Bounty Day, commemorating the destruction of the HMS Bounty by mutineers in 1790, whose descendants still populate Britain’s last remaining overseas territory in the Pacific Ocean

• US: 97th Academy Awards nominations due to be announced in Los Angeles, having been twice postponed because of the southern California fires Separately, the 41st Sundance Film Festival is due to begin (as pre-arranged before the wildfire emergency) in Park City, Utah

Friday

• 60th anniversary of the death of Winston Churchill, British prime minister from 1940-45 and 1951-55

• US: Smithsonian’s National Zoo in Washington’s giant pandas Bao Li and Qing Bao go on public display at their renovated habitat on Asia Trail

Saturday

• Burns Night, the annual celebration of Scotland’s national poet Robert Burns, held on the anniversary of his birth in 1759

• Australia: women’s singles and men’s doubles final day at the AO tennis tournament in Melbourne, the first of the year’s Grand Slam contests. The men’s singles and women’s doubles finals take place tomorrow

• Greece: presidential election

• UK: further protests planned by farmers about the government’s planned changes to inheritance tax

Sunday

• Australia Day, commemorating the landing of The First Fleet in 1788 led by Captain Arthur Phillip, who later became the British colony’s first governor. Protests expected over the nature of the official national day

• Belarus: presidential election

• India: Republic Day, celebrating the country’s constitution coming into force in 1950, including a large military parade through New Delhi