A year of rapidly slumping poll results for the Liberal Party that has governed Canada for nearly a decade was bad enough. But then there came the almost unthinkable: a defeat in a special election in downtown Toronto, the party’s longtime electoral fortress.
The defeat last year, many analysts believe, triggered the chain of events that led to Justin Trudeau’s resignation as prime minister and the federal election that will be held on Monday.
Voters in Toronto had been vital to keeping Mr. Trudeau and the Liberals in power through three elections. So the loss of a Toronto district — held by a prominent Liberal for 28 years — to the Conservatives was a stunning blow and an omen of worse to come in a general election.
Now, with all 343 seats in the House of Commons to be filled in the general election, the 56 at stake in the loosely-defined Greater Toronto Area will likely determine who will steer Canada through a trade battle with the United States that could deal a devastating economic blow.
The Conservatives had been making inroads in the crucial Toronto area, with about 7 million people, before President Trump upended the electoral landscape by imposing tariffs on Canada.
The two leading contenders to become the country’s next leader are Prime Minister Mark Carney of the Liberals and Pierre Poilievre of the Conservatives.
These voters who could go in any direction
While the two dozen seats in Toronto have not been fertile ground for the Conservatives, despite the special election result, voters in the 32 districts in the fast growing communities surrounding the city are not particularly attached to either major party and are up for grabs.
“I wouldn’t say ideologically they’re overwhelmingly Conservative,” said David Coletto, the head of Abacus Data, a polling firm. “But that more leftist-center, or left-wing activist core we see in downtown urban centers — that doesn’t exist.”
In the past, Mr. Coletto said, many voters outside Toronto helped Liberals win federal elections, but would vote for candidates from conservative parties in Ontario’s provincial votes.
Underscoring the importance of the region to the overall result, Mr. Carney is expected to spend much of the final weekend of the campaign in the Greater Toronto Area.
Appealing to immigrant voters is important
Many ethnic communities, including some with a large number of recent immigrants, dominate some of the communities surrounding Toronto, from South Asians and Italians northwest of the city, to Chinese and other Asian communities to the northeast.
While immigrants cannot vote until they obtain citizenship, all major political parties have long concentrated on courting their communities.
A federal task force on intelligence and security threats to the election has said that India, China, Pakistan and Iran are likely targeting those communities with disinformation campaigns related to the election.
This week it said had discovered that China is seeking to turn Chinese-speaking Canadians against a Toronto-area Conservative candidate who is a critic of the limits on democracy in Hong Kong.
Dennis Pilon, a political scientist at York University in Toronto, said that some leaders of those ethnic groups can be important political influences.
The cost of living and house prices are concerns
The cost of living is a top concern for voters in communities outside Toronto, Mr. Coletto said, adding that many residents live in those ares largely because they cannot afford homes in the city or in nearby suburbs.
House prices in Toronto have risen by 44 percent since 2020.
Until the beginning of this year, that worked in favor of Mr. Poilievre, who regularly blamed Mr. Trudeau for inflation and rising house prices.
And many voters, Professor Pilon said, had simply tired of the Liberals after a decade in power and a sense that the country was headed in the wrong directly.
Both parties have promised to help financially-strapped Canadians by providing tax breaks for some home buyers.
Trump’s tariffs, a new leader bring a reversal
Mr. Coletto said that his polling shows the Liberal now lead by 15 percentage points in Toronto and by eight percentage points in the broader Greater Toronto Area.
The Liberals have gained strength in recent weeks, while the Conservatives and some smaller parties have lost ground, and a significant factor has been Mr. Trump’s economic attacks against Canada and his talk of annexing the country.
Polls have consistently shown that Canadians believe that Mr. Carney, a former central banker with experience dealing with past financial crises, can do a better job than Mr. Poilievre in dealing with Mr. Trump.
U.S. tariffs, including on vehicles and auto parts, may have a disproportionate effect on the Greater Toronto Area, which is home to many auto parts makers, as well as vehicle assembly plants of General Motors and Stellantis, the owner of Chrysler.
The tariffs Mr. Trump has applied on its neighbor may play a key role in determining who will capture this deep well of Canadian voters, analysts said.
To win a national election without doing well in greater Toronto, “you need to win everything but” that region, Mr. Coletto said. “That’s impossible in a country is diverse and different as Canada.”