He is now looking at the conflict ending with the Iranian regime still in place – more confident, more hardline and with new financial resources to rebuild its nuclear programme and its proxy network throughout the Middle East.
Eli Groner, a former director-general of Netanyahu’s office, argues that the knowledge that Iran can now close the Strait of Hormuz at any point in the future “is a victory far deeper and more strategic than any point-scoring military achievement”. His one-word summary was: “Disaster.”
As well as potentially alleviating the Islamic republic’s dire financial and economic position, the agreement is likely to tilt the regional balance of power in Iran’s direction.
As Dan Shapiro, a former US ambassador to Israel, observed on X: “Iran has gained significant leverage for the future by demonstrating it can control the strait, by attacking its neighbours and US bases in the region and causing significant damage, and by taking the United States’ and Israel’s best punch and surviving.”
Shapiro believes that, nonetheless, Trump is so boxed in that accepting a bad deal that opens the strait would be a better option than continuing the war.
Given the mounting risks of a global energy crunch and a worldwide recession, that is an understandable calculation. America also has recent memories of wars – including Vietnam and Afghanistan – that went on for far too long, as the US struggled in vain to improve a losing position.