“The UAE withdrawal marks a significant shift for OPEC. Alongside Saudi Arabia, it is one of the few members with meaningful spare capacity- the mechanism through which the group exerts market influence,” said Jorge Leon, an analyst at Rystad.
“While near-term effects may be muted given ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, the longer-term implication is a structurally weaker OPEC.
“Outside the group, the UAE would have both the incentive and the ability to increase production, raising broader questions about the sustainability of Saudi Arabia’s role as the market’s central stabiliser – and pointing to a potentially more volatile oil market as OPEC’s capacity to smooth supply imbalances diminishes,” he said.
ICIS’ director of energy and refining Ajay Parmar said the UAE’s decision to leave the groups was not a surprise given that the country has been in disagreement with general OPEC policy for quite some time.
“So it’s not a surprise, but it will certainly have a significant impact in the long term. It also signifies the general drift in the historically strong alliance between the UAE and Saudi Arabia,” Parmar said.
Sergey Vakulenka of Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center noted that the UAE has been planning to grow oil production by up to 30 per cent, and added that it would be difficult for the country to do so within the limitations of OPEC and OPEC+.
“Now, is probably the least damaging time to announce it – oil prices are high, and there are genuine shortages because of Hormuz closure. After Hormuz reopens, there will be elevated demand as countries will be replenishing reserves that were drawn down since February, so prices will stay high,” he said.
“Without the UAE, OPEC will be much weaker, other major producers, Iran and Iraq, did not maintain any substantial spare capacity. It was mostly done by UAE and Saudi Arabia,” he added.